Every small change can make a big impact. So, what impacts on weather will geoengineering have with every little modification? Well, researchers from RIKEN Center for Computational Science are utilising computer simulations to exhibit how extreme weather could be controlled and affected by making tiny changes to components in the weather system.
The chaos theory-inspired system, the ‘butterfly attractor’, has two distinctive functions. Just like a butterfly’s wings, it switches back and forth between them depending on slight variations in specific conditions.
The findings of the study have a wide range of potential uses in the future, including enhanced control of weather events and deflecting the consequences of climate change.
They piloted a trial where one weather simulation acted as ‘nature’ (the control), and then ran other simulations concurrently by making small changes in variables to describe how heat travels through the system – the convection.
The findings revealed that by making small adjustments to ‘nature,’ they could control ‘nature’ to remain in one chosen regime or specific chosen wing of the butterfly attractor without it changing.
Leading the research team, Takemasa Miyoshi of the RIKEN Center for Computational Science, said: “We have successfully built a new theory and methodology to study the controllability of weather,”
“Based on observing the system simulation experiments used in previous studies, we were able to design an experiment to investigate predictability, on the assumption that the true values (nature) cannot be changed, but rather that we can change the idea of what can be changed (the object to be controlled).”
Edward Lorenz, a mathematician and meteorologist, was the first to suggest the butterfly attractor. According to Lorenz, the tiniest, butterfly-scale modifications within his computer weather models resulted in an array of weather outcomes, from sunny skies to blazing storms, without a robust method to predict its final outcome.
Despite chaos theory being initially introduced in 1972, it remains a contemporary theory which inspired the RIKEN team’s investigation. They experimented with creating realistic possibilities to diminish weather events like torrential rain.
This discovery, according to Takemasa, paves the way for research into the controllability of weather, which could lead to weather control technology in the near future. “If realized, this research could help us prevent and mitigate extreme windstorms, such as torrential rains and typhoons, whose risks are increasing with climate change.”
“In this case, we used an ideal low-dimensional model to establish a new theory,” he says, “and in the future, we want to examine the probable controllability of weather using actual weather models.”
Supercomputer-based simulations and data assimilation have enhanced weather predictions with more precise accuracy, giving rise to the possibility for scientists to manipulate the weather. Because of the increased probability of extreme weather events such as heavy rain and storms, climate change has accelerated research in this field.
The prospects of controlling weather or Geoengineering have been hotly-contested within this past decade. Its advantages have been alluring to many, including the possibility to reverse climate damage on a rapid scale.
However, the unpredictability of what impact it may have within the long run could attract consequences that may be risky, if not grave. Geoengineering efforts may have unforeseen consequences on Earth systems. Because the long-term impacts cannot be completely understood until they are implemented, coupled with how effective the technology is, these initiatives could pose a significant moral risk.
