The Shadow Culture Secretary Thangam Debbonaire is forecast to lose her Parliamentary seat to Co-Leader of the Green Party Carla Denyer in a bombshell poll released by YouGov. The MRP poll (Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification) has predicted a huge 194 seat majority for the Labour Party, with the Conservatives losing 232 of their seats and half of Cabinet Ministers at risk.
Thangam Debbonaire is the only Shadow Cabinet minister who appears to be in trouble according to the poll, with many of her colleagues set to comfortably retain their seats on July 4th. The poll placed Keir Starmer’s Labour Party on 42.9% of the vote share, almost 20 points ahead of Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives on 24.5%. The poll has also predicted a collapse of the Scottish National Party, who are currently the third largest party in Westminster, falling from 31 to 17 seats, and the Liberal Democrats quadrupling their seats, from 8 to 48, which would take them back to levels seen in 1997.
Besides Debbonaire in Bristol Central, the rest of the current Government and Opposition Culture, Media & Sport Ministers are predicted to hold their seats. Whilst Julia Lopez’s (Conservative) seat of Hornchurch & Upminster is said to be a tossup, the seats of Secretary of State Lucy Frazer (Conservative, Ely & East Cambridgeshire), and Shadow Ministers Chris Bryant (Labour, Rhondda & Ogmore), Lilian Greenwood (Labour, Nottingham South) and Stephanie Peacock (Labour, Barnsley South) are predicted to be held by these ministers, returning to the House of Commons in July.
Closer to home, Labour will also be happy with the projections in Sheffield. The party is expected to hold all five of the current Sheffield seats they have (Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough, Sheffield Central, Sheffield Hallam, Sheffield Heeley and Sheffield South East), as well as gaining Penistone & Stocksbridge from the Conservative Miriam Cates.
As Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer prepare to go head-to-head in tonight’s Leaders’ Debate on ITV, both leaders will be hoping to get their message across to voters before the polls open in exactly one month from today. If the headwinds remain as they are, Starmer is on course for larger majorities than both Tony Blair and Margaret Thatcher, with all other parties effectively relegated in Westminster if this comes to pass. Whilst we still have a long time until polling day, Starmer’s lead appears to be holding strong, with the Conservatives entering very rough waters.
See the prediction for your seat here. The first Leaders’ Debate will be live on ITV1 at 9pm tonight, with yesterday’s Scottish Leaders’ Debate available to stream on STV Player. The 2024 U.K. General Election will take place on July 4th
