Scientists have said that it is now almost certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record. According to data from the European Copernicus Climate Change Service, global average temperatures are set to exceed 1.55°C of warming above pre-industrial levels by the end of the year. This projection surpasses the previous record of 1.48°C which was set in 2023.
Early warming in 2024 was boosted by El Niño, a natural weather phenomenon where surface waters in the East Pacific Ocean are warmer than usual, releasing excess heat into the atmosphere. This is thought to have contributed towards the record-breaking temperatures seen this year. The El Niño phase ended in April 2024, but temperatures have continued to stay worryingly high for the remainder of the year. In fact, for the first eight months of 2024, average monthly temperatures were higher than those for the same months in 2023.
This milestone of 1.5°C warming is significant as it marks the reaching of a global limit set by the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015. This agreement was a pledge made by almost 200 countries to tackle the causes of global warming, namely greenhouse gas emissions such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxides. These gases are released in large quantities from activities such as burning fossil fuels, transport and farming practices.
A single year of above 1.5°C of warming will not count as a breach of the Paris Agreement however, as a sustained temperature rise over a number of years would need to be observed for this to be the case. It is a wake-up call, nevertheless, for policy-makers to address how we can start to take action to cut carbon emissions and prepare for the impacts of climate change.
Reducing fossil fuel usage has become a contentious talking point at this year’s COP29 climate talks held in Baku, Azerbaijan. Countries at the previous Conference of Parties summit, held in Dubai last year, had agreed to “transition away from fossil fuels”. Talks at this year’s meeting appear to be going back on this statement, with many people fearing that oil-rich countries are going to simply continue exploiting their valuable resources to further their own economic growth, at the expense of other countries who are starting to feel the effects of extreme weather caused by climate change.
2024 has already seen an unprecedented number of extreme weather events. Torrential rain caused flooding in Spain in October 2024, which killed more than 220 people and left large areas damaged by floodwaters and covered in mud. Temperatures in Delhi, India reached 49.9°C in June 2024 which resulted in a lot of heat-related health issues and 219 deaths from heat stroke. Severe cyclones hit parts of India and Bangladesh displacing around 800,000 people. Even Florida couldn’t escape the damage of two hurricanes (Helene and Milton) in quick succession which caused severe flooding to coastal communities. Four US states have also experienced a number of devastating tornadoes, Canada’s forests are seeing their longest fire season ever, and even Dubai had to shut down briefly in April 2024 due to heavy rain which caused flooding chaos across the city.
“The warmer temperatures [are making] storms more intense, heatwaves hotter and heavy rainfall more extreme, with clearly seen consequences for people all around the world,” says Professor Hawkins, a professor of climate science at the University of Reading. He, and other scientists, are keeping a close eye on what happens as we move into 2025. Climate experts are hoping for the arrival of the opposite, cooler phase to El Niño (known as La Niña) which will hopefully result in a slight drop in global temperatures. It is not certain, though, given the unpredictable nature of current weather patterns.
Most experts feel that the only way to really stabilise global temperatures is to work together to cut global carbon emissions and invest in carbon capture technology. An agreement on carbon emissions targets across all nations would be a step in the right direction, as is hoped for at COP29; however, competing agendas and motives from different parties mean that this is likely to be easier said than done.
