Jon M Chu’s take on Wicked has knocked it out of the park in the Box Office, surpassing expectations and criticism from pessimistic audiences and reviewers alike. Making $112 million in its opening weekend and turning a profit in its second-week haul ($81 million in sales, $150 million budget). It has already seriously outperformed other highly anticipated musicals, such as In The Heights, which grossed a disappointing $45 million. No single aspect made this rendition of Wicked so spectacularly successful; instead, it is an amalgamation of excellence in context and execution. Unfortunately, what that means for the future of screen-to-stage musical adaptations is that they will be unable to live up to the ridiculously high standards that have been set.
Most importantly, Wicked has been a widely beloved and acclaimed musical in the West End and on Broadway for 18 and 21 years, respectively. The story is also easily recognisable as a loose prequel of The Wizard of Oz. Taking and twisting the story of a ‘wicked’ woman and successfully turning it into a mainstream musical with two complex female leads in Elphaba and Glinda, the story acts as a powerful political commentary and serves as a story of self-discovery and determination against societal expectations. Being the second-highest Broadway-grossing musical of all time meant that when the announcement for the adaptation came in 2012, it was no surprise that an extensive fanbase was gearing up and waiting to visit the cinema. Anticipation played an accidental key role, with the announcement rumours and the actual start of production spanning ten years apart after a series of unforeseeable delays.
Inconsiderate casting is often the central flaw of highly anticipated movies, with the industry taking the wrong message from previously successful projects. The result is often a terribly produced and badly cast movie that falls on its face before the first press tour. Handling the production and marketing of this movie is the other vital instrumental element in analysing its unique success. Although the casting director did end up casting two celebrities, Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo, as the leads, it’s very clear the casting process was not based on previous projects or general ‘fame’.
I think this set the groundwork for the project to seep passion and energy. This was instrumental in perpetuating the marketing success of the movie. The promotion has been so clever, eye-catching, and funny that I think most socially-active people would be able to identify the story and its protagonists. Love it or hate it, it has somehow been able to hit an astoundingly large demographic. By choosing a social-media and appearance-heavy approach, the fans have been at the forefront of the promotion process. The generation of traffic towards the movie is uniquely new and is proving uniquely successful.
It may be a winning formula. However, I think the only reason the promotion has been as successful as it has is directly related to the contextual relevance and popularity of the story. Its conditions for success have been uniquely extraordinary, and others with the same promise, such as Matilda and Wonka, were broadly unable to do so. That means other potential movie musicals are now almost destined to fall flat. For example, if Hamilton were to be turned into a movie, I don’t think any amount of celebrity casting or witty promotion would allow it to surpass, or even break even, with Wicked.
It doesn’t matter that Hamilton is also highly acclaimed and hugely popular. There isn’t enough content within the story to be executed well, with the musical containing a single line of dialogue throughout its 2-hour, 45-minute runtime. In addition, many songs skip through several years and periods without elaboration. With the way the story is told, an adaptation would need a new creative spin. Otherwise, it quickly becomes a badly executed, hyper-realistic movie-musical about the American Revolution.
So, has Wicked broken the mould? No. But that’s not entirely a bad thing. It has been able to fly and defy expectations in its own right, which is arguably much more valuable. Depending on the success of Part 2, scheduled to be released on 21st Nov 2025, Wicked has the potential to go down as the most successful in its genre. Other potential projects lack a key element that would make them nearly as successful.
If it is to have a targeted, widespread impact on the perception of the genre, I hope it is one that recognises the value of the arts and theatre and leads to greater investment. This movie is exciting, fun, and visually appealing and will likely introduce a new generation to the joys of arts and theatre. That is a much more powerful impact than facilitating a shift in the predominant genre on the big screen.
