It has now been just over a year since Russian forces invaded Ukraine, initiating a war of which the way out is still unclear. More recently in the news, we’ve seen President Zelensky making efforts to secure military support from the west and declaring that Ukraine could win the war this year, as long as its allies stay united ‘like a fist’ and continue delivering weapons and other support. We look at events leading up to the war, a timeline of the war itself, and consider potential ways out of the conflict.
What led to the initial invasion?
The relationship between Russia and Ukraine has been somewhat tense for centuries. Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union until 1991, when Soviet collapse gave Ukraine the opportunity for freedom, independence, and democracy – an opportunity which they took. Many experts say that Putin is looking to rebuild the former Russian Empire and is focusing on Ukraine due to its democracy and attempts to align itself with the Western blocs of the EU and NATO, which the Russian President views as threatening.
In 2014, when Putin chose to annex Crimea, the West’s response wasn’t as severe as it could have been. Russia is on the UN Security Council, and whilst the majority of the general assembly declared the annexation an illegal act, there was no definitive action to show the world how dangerous it was. It has been suggested that this arguably timid response to the annexation could have led Putin to believe that invading Ukraine would be met similarly.
Putin tried to justify the war by saying that the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO was a provocation. However, this wasn’t being truly considered. Furthermore, Putin claimed that Ukraine is not a real country. However, even though like many countries in Europe Ukraine has across history been occupied by many empires, it is an independent country now.
Timeline of key events:
21 February 2022 – Russia recognises two breakaway republics in the Donbas region, in Eastern Ukraine.
22 February 2022 – Russian forces enter the two break-away republics, the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic.
24 February 2022 – Airstrikes hit targets across Ukraine, as far west as Lviv, and Russian forces invade from multiple entry points – Belarus, Russia, and Russian-occupied Crimea.
9 March 2022 – Mariupol maternity hospital is attacked. Despite Russia agreeing to a 12-hour pause in any hostilities to allow refugees to evacuate, the maternity hospital is hit by a missile, causing four deaths, one stillbirth, and at least 17 injured.
16 March 2022 – Mariupol theatre bombing. 1,300 people had been sheltering there due to the city being under siege for weeks, around 300 people die, but this number could be higher.
1 April 2022 – Atrocities committed by Russian troops in Bucha are uncovered.
14 April 2022 – Sinking of the Moskva, a guided missile cruiser belonging to the Russian Navy. It was the largest Russian warship to be sunk since WWII and the first Russian flagship to be sunk since the Russo-Japanese war in 1905.
21 September 2022 – Russia’s partial mobilisation starts. Putin announces Russia’s first mobilisation since WWII, sparking protests among Russian citizens, and many men of fighting age leave the country to avoid the draft. Despite the mobilisation increasing Russian troop numbers, there were many errors in its organisation, and ultimately it produced fighters who were poorly equipped and mostly untrained.
8 October 2022 – Crimea bridge attacked. An explosion triggers a fire and damages the Kerch Strait Bridge. A truck filled with explosives detonated at a structurally weak point of the bridge and was large enough to rupture fuel tanks in a passing train, setting it alight. The attack severed an important Russian supply line, its only link to Crimea, and triggered a month of airstrikes against Ukraine.
10 October 2022 – Kyiv blackout. Russia launches several series of missile strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. These target power facilities, leaving large areas of the country without power or water.
12 November 2022 – Kherson liberation. Ukrainian citizens celebrate as Russian troops retreat from Kherson, despite Putin himself declaring it Russian territory just weeks prior.
21 December 2022 – President Zelenskyy visits the White House and addresses the US Congress. This marked his first foreign trip since the Russian invasion began. At this visit, the Biden administration announced that they would give Ukraine $2 billion worth of security assistance.
25 January 2023 – Germany approves sending Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. They will also allow other countries to export the tanks to Ukraine as well. Furthermore, the US will send 31 M1 Abrams to Ukraine. This move is seen as a major breakthrough in the West’s military support for Ukraine.
20 February 2023 – Biden visits Kyiv. He declares: ‘One year later, Kyiv stands. And Ukraine stands. Democracy stands.’
4 March 2023– Germany’s defence contractor Rheinmetall is in negotiations about building a tank factory in Ukraine. They hope that the construction would allow Ukraine to achieve the number of tanks they require for their defence efforts.
4-5 March 2023 – The fight for Bukhmut continues. Kyiv and Moscow are both struggling with ammunition shortages. Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner mercenary group who are leading the Russian offensive in Bukhmut, warned that if his group withdrew, it could lead to the collapse of the whole Russian frontline. The outcome of this fight is unclear, however, there have been signs that Ukraine could be preparing to retreat.
What could the way out be?
Even many experts say that we’re no closer to answering this question. Despite delegates from both countries attempting to negotiate a cease-fire and possible peaceful resolution, it’s incredibly difficult to predict Putin’s next moves.
Russia has the advantage in terms of equipment and manpower, and its defence industry has stayed strong despite sanctions, with missile production increasing throughout the war. It has been suggested that Russia will remain offensive until the summer, but to continue holding frontlines they would have to call another wave of mobilisation by winter. This, in turn, could leave them vulnerable to Ukraine’s counter-offensives.
Ukraine has the advantage in terms of willpower; however, as they hold out longer, this may lead to fewer constraints from Russia and more indiscriminate killing. Individual donations of weapons and defences from countries won’t fulfil the required support required for Ukraine; only a common effort can do this.
Despite President Zelensky declaring that the war will end this year, experts such as Mark Milley, US chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, say that this is unlikely. He said it would be incredibly difficult for Ukraine to push Russian troops out of its entire territory this year.
One scenario that has been largely ruled out is a stalemate – Putin’s stubbornness would not allow this, which has convinced Washington and other allies that Ukraine must not lose. This has led to increased efforts from such countries to support Ukraine in this fight. We will likely see more clearly the extent NATO partners are willing to support Ukraine militarily as the second year of the war continues.