On 24 February 2022, Vladimir Putin sent his forces into Ukrainian territory in a full-scale invasion of the country. It begs the question: one year later, where do we find ourselves? Millions have fled the country and over 8,000 civilians have died. Additionally, over 200,000 military casualties have been found from both sides. Meanwhile, Putin’s aggression shows no sign of slowing down. If anything, there seems to have been an escalation of tensions, with Putin’s recent state of the union address demonstrating that we are nowhere near peace in Ukraine.
It is safe to say that Putin did not expect this war to be drawn out for the length of the time it has. One might assume the military might of Russia would dwarf that of Ukraine’s and make this a quick war. However, this has not been the case, due to the strong military support and economic sanctions imposed on Russia by Western allies. This has allowed Ukraine to stave off Russian attacks and reclaim territory it had lost in the previous year. Ukraine only appears to be getting stronger, whilst Russia becomes weaker. Military analyst Phillips O’Brien of St. Andrews University has observed that Ukraine has acquired better systems and are set to receive more, while Russia has lost their best trained soldiers, ammunition supplies, and key equipment. The momentum of the war seems to be swinging in favour of Ukraine.
Above all, this is a result of the strength and courage displayed by Ukraine and its people. Putin expected this war to be over in days and force Zelenskyy’s surrender within hours. However, Ukraine stood strong and has been able to maintain its independence and its freedom. However, Putin’s state of the union address made clear he will continue this war and escalate tensions with the Russian suspension of the New START treaty. The world must continue to show the same resolve Ukraine has and stand shoulder to shoulder with its people.
The most notable headline to come from Putin’s state of the nation address was his suspension of the 2010 New START treaty. New START was signed by Obama and Medvedev on 8 April, 2010. It limits the number of nuclear and strategic warheads that can be deployed and allows a certain number of inspections of the opposing side’s nuclear arsenals. Putin’s address marked the end of this agreement on the Russian side. This is significant because it will be difficult for the US to also honour their side of the agreement in the long-term future, marking a regression in the relationship between the two superpowers and creating a more significant threat towards world peace.
All the Western allies supporting Ukraine can do is continue to strongly support Ukraine and not be deterred by Putin’s escalation of tensions. This is clear through the numerous state visits that have been undertaken recently, most notably by Joe Biden and Keir Starmer, who is all but certain to be the next British Prime Minister. Also Zelenskyy’s recent visit to a number of European countries, including France and the UK, demonstrates unity for Ukraine is still strong. The Western allies have done well to maintain sanctions even in the face of a cost-of-living crisis and inflammatory rhetoric from Putin which has proven to be an effective strategy only in bolstering the tide of support in Ukraine’s favour. It was encouraging to see Biden make a state visit to Poland, not only to deter further Russian aggression in the country but also to strengthen NATO’s Eastern flank. Western support for the war must be unwavering as the battle for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and freedom rages on.
However, the US must now join their European allies in supporting a special tribunal to bring Putin to justice for the crime of aggression. The UK joined France, Germany, the Netherlands, and the Nordic, Baltic, and Eastern European countries in endorsing Zelenskyy’s request that the Russian president and his enablers be prosecuted. In the past, the US similarly endorsed criminal tribunals for the former Yugoslavia and again a year later for Rwanda. Those who oppose this motion should remember the verdicts of both Nuremberg and Tokyo, where the fascist aggressors of the Second World War were brought to justice. Additionally, the former Liberian president, Charles Taylor, currently resides in a Durham prison for crimes against humanity after a similar verdict was reached on his actions in Sierra Leone.
If the US were to support this motion, then this tribunal could be constituted within weeks. The international community must stand united and send out a message that the crime of aggression will not pass with impunity. In a world where tensions are escalating between Kosovo and Serbia, as well as China and Taiwan, it must be clear that there will be no hiding place for war criminals like Putin. It is abundantly clear that this crime can be proven in the Hague and it must be punished. It is something the international community owes to the people of Ukraine whose towns and villages have been destroyed but hearts and spirit have remained unbroken.
Image credits: Max Kukurudziak via Unsplash