The 2020 US presidential election is widely considered to be the most consequential and significant in US political history. This is illustrated by America witnessing the highest voter turnout in 120 years. The importance Americans have placed on this election is understandable given the political polarization in America which has provoked both sides into asserting that they are fighting for the very soul of the United States. This political division is typified by President Trump challenging the vote count and the validity of mail-in ballots in many states despite the majority of media outlets declaring Joe Biden to be the President-elect.
Consequently, I have spoken to Professor Charles Pattie, Professor of Politics and International Relations at the University of Sheffield, who is an expert on elections and voting, and Dr Andrew Heath, Senior Lecturer in American History at the University of Sheffield, who is an expert in American politics to get their thoughts on the election result and what the implications of this election are for the future of US politics.
What do you think ultimately cost Trump his chances of re-election?
Professor Pattie: ‘There is not much doubt that the mishandling of the Covid-19 pandemic was a factor; without that, his re-election chances would have been buoyed by the economy. Biden probably helped a bit, as he was able to appeal to voters in states like Michigan who had swung to Trump in 2016’.
Dr Heath: Trump ‘was never a popular president in the first place’, with ‘his approval rating rarely…upwards of 40-45%’ in spite of ‘what on the surface looked like a strong economy’; and him only winning the presidency against ‘another deeply unpopular candidate’ through ‘a straight flush of razor thin margins in battleground states’. The results in this election ‘so far…look midway between 2016 and the 2018 ‘Blue Wave’ midterms, where Trump faced an energetic Democratic base and lost out to swing voters in the suburbs’. It is likely that even without Covid-19 Trump would not ‘have had an easy route to re-election’.
Why do you think it looks like Trump performed better than some polls expected? Why do you think his support grew with some groups?
Professor Pattie: Probably because ‘many people didn’t change their minds’ with Trump’s supporters…(being) largely “baked” in months ago’. In addition, ‘among those who loved him, he generated huge enthusiasm’ meaning ‘I wouldn’t be…surprised to find out that part of the very large turnout this time were enthused Trump supporters who wouldn’t normally vote…the assumption that high turnout must help the Democrats is a rather lazy one…to me…some new voters went Democrat, but some went Trump’. Trump could also claim to have provided ‘economic success…and he probably benefitted from…appointing more conservative judges at all levels’ which ‘his base would respond to’.
Dr Heath: Trump ‘did outperform polling’ which is ‘perhaps a result of Trump voters being harder to get on the phone’ or ‘some being reluctant to admit’ they are Trump voters; ‘but if Georgia and Arizona stay in Democrats hands, Democrats will take it as a very good electoral college result: they reclaimed the Midwest and made inroads in the Sunbelt’. It ‘appears that Trump did a lot better than in 2016 with conservative Latino voters in the likes of Miami (where he has courted citizens of Cuban heritage) and the Texas border’ and ‘if these are indeed trends, Democrats may need to watch them’, but ‘to me the emerging patterns just indicate the weakness of glib explanations of American voting behaviour’.
The Republicans have made gains in the House and may retain the control of the Senate. Do you think this will affect Biden’s ability to govern? Do you think we pay too much attention to the Presidential race?
Professor Pattie: ‘Assuming he (Biden) does become President…(which looks) very likely now, and that the Democrats don’t take the Senate’ Biden ‘will struggle’ as McConnell ‘will…do all he can to thwart Biden and the Democrats’. Both ‘the Democrats and the Republicans will have been paying huge attention to the senate races in particular’ but it is unclear ‘how much attention the rest of us paid’.
Dr Heath: ‘If the Senate does stay in Republican hands…it might prevent him (Biden) from appointing more left leaning Democrats to Cabinet positions’. However, though ‘he’d prefer to have control of both houses’ Biden, who is ‘on the Democrat right by instinct, might not mind’ not having control of the Senate as it will provide him ‘a bit more cover for governing’ with a ‘centrist…agenda’ and ‘reaching across’ to Republicans who are ‘likely to support elements of a centrist Democrat’s agenda’. Furthermore, ‘a Republican senate might make blowback in the midterms less likely for the Democrats’. Regarding whether we pay ‘too much attention to the presidency…the bigger story of the next few years might be an attempt to put constitutional reform on the table that might ensure Washington as a whole better reflects the way Americans vote’ which ‘could include’ things like ‘the abolition of the electoral college’; though ‘they are unlikely to pass given Republican opposition…they may help set an agenda for constitutional reform around which progressives can mobilise’.
Do you think Biden will be able to reunite an increasingly polarized America? If so, how do you think he will achieve this?
Professor Pattie: It is unlikely Biden will be able to reunite Americans as ‘American politics has been polarising for years…Trump is just the latest twist in the process’. Ultimately ‘there are a variety of reasons for’ why ‘the roots of polarization run very deep’ in American society: such as ‘the fallout from Vietnam, the counterculture’; ‘the reaction to the Civil rights movement…and the gradual demographic shift in US society to an increasingly diverse population in which white Americans will soon lose their majority status’ which has provoked ‘all sorts of anxieties and pressures around race’; the ‘rising inequalities in the US since the 90’s’ with ‘many Americans’ witnessing ‘their living standards stagnate or reverse’ which has made ‘many Americans…feel political elites do not work in their interest – with some reason’. It is therefore difficult to ‘see how Biden will be able to do much to reverse things’.
Dr Heath: Biden is ‘never going to win over the 10-20% of diehard Trump voters’, but ‘he is a much less divisive figure than Trump, and may be able to build a coalition across the centre of US politics’ by ‘building…on his friendship with Mitch McConnell’, building on ‘his victory speech’ by continuing to adopt language which is designed ‘to soothe and conciliate’, and by potentially ‘appointing a “Never Trumper” Republican…to his cabinet’. Both the Republicans and the ‘left of the Democratic party’ will likely fight these ‘attempts vigorously’ because it ‘threatens their (the Republican) party’s success’; while a seeming return to the ‘kind of centrist politics associated with…Bill Clinton’ will be hard to swallow for the ‘left of the Democratic party’ as Biden ‘won with thanks in part to the energy of a Democratic party that tilts more to the left than he does’, thus they will be expecting ‘serious measures to address’ the ‘issues that have seen people mobilize in huge numbers on the streets’, such as ‘racism and the environmental crisis’. Although, ‘if the Democrats don’t win those Georgia Senate seats…he’ll be forced into such a strategy regardless’ which will definitely leave the ‘left of the Democratic party’ frustrated. Consequently, Biden’s ‘presidency may well be a test case of whether the centre can hold in the United States’.
Do you think the current situation in which Trump is demanding ballots be recounted and mail in ballots be checked for their eligibility represents a catastrophic breakdown in trust in American institutions? If so, what do you think is the cause of this and what do you think it means for the future?
Professor Pattie: ‘For many Americans, trust had broken down before Trump won in 2016’, with ‘Trump’s claim on electoral fraud’ having ‘resonance (or so it seems) with his base…because they already distrusted what they termed the “deep state”’, a distrust which is attributable to the polarization American politics has experienced in the last few decades.
Dr Heath: There is nothing ‘wrong in asking for recounts in close races’ but it is ‘unlikely that…(voter fraud) would occur on anything like the magnitude required to change a result’ and it is not likely that it would happen in ‘the very places Trump is suggesting fraud took place (big cities)’ as they ‘voted for him in slightly higher numbers than…(in) 2016’, while in Philadelphia ‘the running of elections is in the hands of a bipartisan commission’. There ‘are more likely reasons for Trump’s loss’ – such as him ‘not…(being) a popular president and Biden…(being) seen as electable’ – thus Trump may be trying to ‘deflect blame’ for his ‘own defeat’ through ‘allegations of…(voter) fraud’. By alleging systematic voter fraud, he ‘could do lasting damage to American faith in the electoral process’.