The clock is ticking for Vladimir Putin.
When he launched his “special military operation” to protect ethnic Russians in the Donbas from “genocide” and to “de-Nazify” Ukraine, the leader of the Kremlin believed that victory would be swift. Ukrainian resistance would melt away in the face of overwhelming Russian firepower and Ukraine would be pulled back into Russia’s orbit. The whole business would be finished before a stunned West would have time to react.
Four weeks later, thanks to a combination of stiff Ukrainian resistance and Russian military incompetence, Putin is still far from victory. The West has had time to react.
For its part, the UK government has announced measures aimed at disrupting the flow of Russian commodities. For example, on 8 March the government announced it would be phasing out imports of Russian oil by the end of 2022. The UK has also imposed a ban on exporting luxury goods to Russia and will put a 35% tax on some Russian imports, including vodka.
The government has also targeted more than 1000 individuals with economic sanctions since the invasion began. In the latest raft of measures, more than fifty oligarchs with a combined net worth of £100 billion were slapped with asset freezes and UK travel bans. As well as mega rich Russian business owners, key political allies of Putin have also been targeted. Individuals include the defence minister Sergei Shoigu, a key member of his inner circle, the prime minister, Mikhail Mishustin, former president Dmitry Medvedev, as well as Maria Zakharova, a foreign affairs spokesperson.
Although these measures are of course welcome, it must be asked why such prominent and influential members of Putin’s regime were not targeted sooner? It is not as if Boris Johnson and his advisers were unaware that members of the Kremlin held substantial amounts of money and assets in the UK.
Indeed, there are many more prominent Russians with ties to Putin who have not faced any sanctions. Indeed, this is the point which has been raised by Chris Bryant, a Labour MP and chair of the parliamentary group on Russia. Bryant has said that those who are yet to be targeted include: Sergei Brilev, a Russian state media TV presenter who was said to have a £700,000 flat in south London as well as a British and Russian passport; Elsina Khayrova, the daughter of a former Russian MP who has a £22m mansion in the UK, and the family members of Roman Abramovich.
There has also been a lack of coordination between UK, EU, and US sanctions. Since the invasion on 24 February, the EU has sanctioned 424 individuals who have not been sanctioned by the UK. The US has sanctioned 38 individuals who are not on the UK’s list. There are still four individuals named by Russian dissident Alexei Navalny who appear on the EU or the US sanctions list but not on the UK’s.
EU countries too have been far more reluctant than the UK and the US to ban the flow of Russian gas. The 27 member states are far more dependent on Russian gas than their allies, relying on Russia for 40% of their gas. Given the geopolitical reality which has existed for the past two decades, it is a disgrace that Russia has been allowed to maintain such influence over the European energy market.
Although more can certainly be done, the sanctions are having an impact. In early March the rouble sank to a record low. Most recently, Goldman Sachs has predicted that the Russian economy will shrink by 10% this year, its greatest contraction since the years of economic catastrophe during the 1990s. The Wall Street bank also predicted that Western sanctions on Russia’s trade will cause exports to drop 10% and imports to tumble 20%.
It is doubtful that Putin cares about the impact that these sanctions are having on the Russian economy. The Kremlin leader has appeared to be increasingly megalomaniac and detached from reality over the past few months. All he is fixated on is achieving the removal of Zelensky’s government no matter the cost.
But as this war drags on and the economic sanctions continue to bite, his close associates, allies, and partners will begin to care about the cost to their own personal wealth. Putin is a popular man because of the wealth he has brought to the individuals around him. Remove this wealth and you remove Putin’s source of power and hold over these people. Wealthy capitalists only care about their individual prosperity. They will not support Putin’s action in Ukraine if their money is threatened. The longer this war drags on the higher the likelihood that Putin’s inner circle will turn on him.
This is the sad reality that Ukrainians are faced with. The only way that the man who seeks the decapitation of their nation can be stopped is by the continuation of his war of destruction. Time is what will tell Putin. But time is not something that the hundreds of thousands of trapped civilians in Mariupol, in Kharkiv, and in Kyiv can afford. Thousands more Ukrainians will continue to suffer and die as a result of Putin’s war before the Russian political establishment turns on him.
It is Putin who will face the political cost of war, but it is the Ukrainian people who will face the human cost.