We’ve been hearing about the government’s Rwanda scheme for so long now that you’re probably wondering if it will ever actually be put in action. This five-year agreement with the Rwandan government certainly doesn’t seem to be doing too well so far, since the UK has yet to actually send any migrants to have their asylum claims heard there. However, despite this, on the surface, the scheme already seems to be working as a deterrent for immigrants and people smugglers with the amount of people making the crossing across the Channel in small boats falling by nearly a third in 2023, compared with 2022. However, the Rwanda bill was blocked in November last year by the Supreme Court who ruled it unlawful, so the government is now trying to pass a new bill that will put into UK law that Rwanda is a safe third country. This bill passed in the Commons on January 17th despite the criticism of some MPs who believe that it breaks international law by ordering courts to ignore sections of the Human Rights Act, as well as other British laws and international rules.
Now, you may be wondering why exactly this new Rwanda bill is causing chaos and threatening the future of the Conservative party. Well, the fact of the matter is that different factions of the party support the new bill to different degrees. For example, the One Nation caucus, whose membership includes over 100 Conservative MPs, backed the bill but warned the Prime Minister not to toughen it any further. Some of the members of this liberal centre right faction were even concerned that it already sets aside some of the UK’s obligations in international law. On the other hand, the ERG (European Research Group), the CSG (Common Sense Group) and the New Conservatives don’t believe that the new bill goes far enough. In total more than 60 MPs were backing changes with Boris Johnson stating that “the bill must be as legally robust as possible” and Miriam Cates (the chair of the New Conservatives faction) saying that she would be willing to vote the bill down if Rishi Sunak didn’t accept her changes. Nevertheless, Mel Stride, the work and pensions secretary, claimed that all Conservative MPs wanted the bill to succeed, and, indeed, it was passed with only 11 Conservative MPs voting against it in the end. The bill is now being debated in the House of Lords, where it is facing opposition.
Since the Tory party is now divided over how tough the Rwanda bill should be, you may be wondering what their future might look like. The Conservative party has long been split over key political issues. Notably Lord David Cameron resigned as Prime Minister in 2016 after the success of the leave campaign in the Brexit referendum. Since then, it seems like this divide has widened and this has led to the emergence of more and more factions. In fact, the New Conservatives faction only formed in May 2023, which suggests that Conservative MPs are finding it increasingly difficult to identify with each other’s political stances, despite the fact that they are part of the same political party. The Conservatives are also losing public support as their policies appear to fail again and again. A recent YouGov poll suggested that the party could be reduced to just 169 seats in the next election. They currently hold 349 so this would be a major loss and would cause them to lose their majority in the Commons. However, we have to question whether the Conservatives losing power in the short term would actually benefit them in the long term since it might give them a chance to regroup and streamline their stances in order to present a more unified front in subsequent elections. Therefore, it seems unlikely that the chaos that the Rwanda bill is currently causing will cause the permanent breakdown of the Conservative party, however it might hamper their progress in the short term.