After a three-week break thanks to an international break and the FA Cup quarter-finals, the Premier League returns this weekend for the decisive final stretch of the season.
Plenty of questions remain. Can Arsenal recover from a minor blip and hold off Man City for an elusive title after three years of second-place finishes? Will Arne Slot turn Liverpool’s fortunes around sufficiently to secure Champions League qualification and perhaps his job?
Away from the top-end of the table, could any of the league’s over-achievers emerge from mid-table and claim a place in European competition? Candidates include Fulham, Everton, and Bournemouth. Finally, Tottenham face the very real prospect of a shocking first relegation in 49 years – can the appointment of Roberto De Zerbi change this and condemn one of West Ham, Nottingham Forest, or Leeds to the second flight?
The title race
Despite a healthy nine-point lead at the top and their nearest rivals Man City drawing their last two league games against West Ham and Nottingham Forest, panic has started to set in at Arsenal.
This is the result of two confidence-draining domestic cup defeats in which they have looked uncertain and under pressure. They were convincingly beaten 2-0 in the Carabao Cup final by Man City, barely laying a glove on them with the Cityzens asserting an authority that suggested they were ready to take the title off them once again.
They then had 11 players withdraw from international duty, which may provide a welcome rest, but also could portray a team that is worried and in danger of crumbling. These absences seeped into another defeat as they were bullied by Southampton in the FA Cup with Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, and Jurrien Timber absent.
It would take something incredible for such an advantage to be overturned in seven games. However, City have been there twice before in chasing Arsenal down, and they host the Gunners in a couple of weeks. Win that and the lead could be down to six points with a game in hand.
Liverpool or Chelsea to miss out on the Champions League?
While Man United and Aston Villa have some breathing space in 3rd and 4th, Liverpool and Chelsea sit just a point apart in 5th and 6th with the top 5 likely to get Champions League football next season.
Failing to secure elite European football would not be looked upon kindly by the board at either club, but it would almost certainly seal the fate of Arne Slot.
Liverpool were thrashed 4-0 by Man City in the FA Cup at the weekend, and if history repeats itself, they will soon be knocked out of the Champions League by Paris Saint-Germain.
This will leave the league as the only way to salvage Liverpool’s season, but their recent struggles have shown no signs of abating. They look far too easy to play against, the form of Mo Salah is woeful, and question have been asked by captain Virgil van Dijk about the commitment of some of his players in the defeat to Man City.
Chelsea are the most likely beneficiaries if Liverpool’s poor form continues, although they have worries of their own.
Two limp league defeats against Newcastle at home and Everton away, combined with an 8-2 aggregate thrashing against PSG has put new manager Liam Rosenior into the firing line already. Comments made by Marc Cucurella and Enzo Fernandez have increased this pressure, with Rosenior giving Fernandez a two-match ban for his comments about Madrid.
Which of these sides recovers from their malaise quicker will decide who gets the place in the Champions League, providing relief even if both look far off where they would ideally like to be.
On the managerial side, you would expect Rosenior to keep his job into next season barring a calamitous end to the season, but for Arne Slot, with Anfield favourite Xabi Alonso waiting in the wings, it looks like his time as Liverpool manager could be rapidly running out.
The surprise European candidates
It is an open race to claim 7th place and a likely spot in the Europa Conference League next season.
Currently in pole position on goal difference are Brentford, with 46 points from 31 games. Keith Andrews has kept Brentford on their fantastic trajectory under the ownership of Matthew Benham, and with the help of Igor Thiago’s 19 premier league goals, European football for the first time in their history looks a possibility.
Lurking just behind are Everton and Fulham. Everton are having a very respectable first season at the Hill-Dickinson stadium, even if they have performed better away from home, and David Moyes is up to his usual work of quietly building a team that goes about its business in an efficient manner.
Marco Silva is often praised for the work he has done at Craven Cottage and linked with more prestigious managerial positions, but if he was to cap that off by getting Fulham back into Europe this would be thrust into the limelight.
Which of these can be the most consistent will be the key factor, and if the answer is none of them, then any of Brighton, Sunderland, Newcastle, and Bournemouth are waiting in the wings to grab a European spot.
Crystal Palace looked poised to cement another finish between 10th and 15th, which they have done every season since they were promoted in 2012-13.
The relegation battle
After the failed stint of Igor Tudor, Tottenham have turned to Roberto De Zerbi to rescue them from what would be the most high-profile and unlikely relegation in premier league history.
They will hope the Italian can finally be the answer to provoking some reversal in fortunes, but nothing Tottenham have tried this season seems to be working.
An injury crisis remains, confidence and will look shattered, and they keep losing to their nearest rivals. There has been barely a sign of a team capable of staying in the division since the turn of the calendar year.
West Ham, Leeds, and Forest will certainly hope this remains the case. The Hammers seemed cut adrift not so long ago, but manager Nuno Espirito Santo seems to have finally instilled a culture where they are difficult to beat and capable of hurting teams.
It has been slightly overstated how much results have improved, but they have certainly looked a more competent outfit than Spurs in the last few months and have the greater momentum as a result. They will welcome the return of Crysencio Summerville from injury.
Forest grabbed a huge result last time out by beating Spurs 3-0 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, which followed a 2-2 draw at Man City, and are now three points clear of the drop zone. They remain in trouble but will hope they can grind out enough results to be clear of danger at the end of the season.
A confidence did seem to exist around Leeds a few weeks ago, but failing to win in six straight league games has brought them back into the conversation. They have not scored in their last four, which is an even bigger problem.
Nonetheless, they do sit four points clear of West Ham, and have just knocked them out on penalties to reach their first FA Cup semi-final since 1987. They will hope this has given the club a decisive lift.
Top scorer Dominic Calvert-Lewin also converted a penalty in that game. If he rediscovers his scoring touch this could be crucial in ensuring Leeds do not get dragged into something they thought they were clear of.
For Burnley and Wolves it looks far too late and they are preparing for life in the Championship. Wolves have been doing so for a while, and it is only an upturn in results under Rob Edwards that means they sit on 17 points and could condemn Burnley to last place.
There is plenty to be decided at all ends of the Premier League table as we enter the run-in, and it is likely to be a tense and exciting end to the season.
